Evidence · Hypothesis testing
Hypothesis Testing as Evidence
What does a p-value measure, and what does it not measure?
Page 1 of 6 · Question
Compatibility, not proof
A hypothesis test examines how strongly the data conflict with a specified null hypothesis. It asks whether the evidence is strong enough, under a prespecified decision rule, to reject that null hypothesis.
Central question
If the null hypothesis and analysis assumptions were true, would a result this far from the null be unusual enough to reject the null?
A p-value measures compatibility with the null model. It does not report the probability that the null is true, prove a particular alternative explanation, or establish that the estimated magnitude is important.
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