Regression · Policy interpretation
Predicted Probabilities
A fitted model can translate log-odds into probabilities, but the investigator must define whose covariate values the prediction represents.
Page 1 of 7 · Big Picture
The big picture: Predicted Probabilities
What probability does the fitted model imply for a defined profile or population?
Why a policy analyst should care
Predicted probabilities translate a logistic model into policy-facing magnitudes, but the answer changes with the profile or population over which predictions are defined and averaged.
Follow the idea from the opening question to a practical decision. These are the conceptual moves this module will develop:
1 Question Whose predicted probability?
2 Explore Change coverage for the same profile
3 Formalize From one profile to a population average
4 Transfer Specify a useful survey contrast
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